Yesterday, I came across a great NBA-related article on Grantland entitled "The 5 Percent Theory: Why NBA teams shouldn't time their rise to avoid a juggernaut. Plus, 10 great things about the season so far." The article, written by columnist Zach Lowe, argues that "If you have some pieces, you're almost there, and if you're almost there, you go for it — even if the chances of toppling a superpower are slim." He backs his assertion up with comments from (among others) highly-respected Houston GM Daryl Morey and Dallas owner Mark Cuban, the latter of which compiled a championship-winning roster in 2011 even though everyone said that the Mavericks had no chance of toppling the Lakers, Celtics or Heat. Given how much luck and injuries play into the run to an NBA title, I strongly agree with Lowe - just because the Heat seem dominant and the Lakers and Thunder could be scary doesn't mean that the next set of teams should be treading water until LeBron and Wade are pulled apart and Kobe retires.
I thought about this article a lot in the context of the start that my beloved New York Knicks have had to the 2012-13 NBA season. While many fans are (perhaps overly) thrilled with the team's 3-0 record and, in particular, its impressive and inspired opening night victory over Miami, I've heard a ton of naysayers out there arguing that the Knicks are wasting their time and money on veterans like Kurt Thomas, Marcus Camby and Jason Kidd when they should be building towards a future that doesn't include Heat and Lakers rosters headlined by any sort of "Big Three." These people argue that the Knicks are fooling themselves by thinking they have any chance to compete this year, and as such shouldn't try to do so. This argument relies on the logic that the only goal a team should have going into an NBA season is to win a championship. Is that the right way to look at it, though?
As a fan of the Braves - a team that consistently stays competitive but rarely wins it all - I might be biased here, but I don't believe in a championship-or-bust philosophy. True, there's nothing better than seeing your team take home the trophy - I still remember the Braves 1995 World Series victory like it was yesterday, and the two Super Bowls that the Giants have captured this decade sit at the top of my Best Sports Moments list. But as good as those highs are, the lows associated with following a truly uncompetitive team can be extremely painful - particularly when you feel like your team's ownership and management are willing to tolerate the losing. I agree with Zach Lowe - even if your team has just a 5% chance to capturing a title this season, you owe it to your fans and players to go for it.
Do I think the Knicks are going to win the NBA title this season? No, I don't. But do I think that, with a core of Carmelo Anthony, Tyson Chandler and Amar'e Stoudemire and a surrounding cast comprised of useful veterans, the Knicks are at least in the conversation? Sure, why not! And as such, I applaud their moves to go get some veterans with playoff experience who can add leadership and play key roles this season without mortgaging the team's future. Just as I'll never understand why the Washington Nationals shut down Stephen Strasburg to preserve their chance at future World Series titles when they could have won a World Series with him this year, I don't understand the argument that the Knicks should lay low and let the Heat and Lakers battle for the 2013 title. I advise all Knicks fans to give this new roster (and coach Mike Woodson) a chance, and enjoy the good start while you can.
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