Few seemingly-benign sports concepts are criticized more than the NBA Draft Lottery, the 2013 edition of which takes place tonight (8:30 PM ET on ESPN). What on the surface seems like a pretty basic lottery system - a random drawing weighted by won-loss record in the previous season to determine which NBA teams get the draft's first three selections - is ripe with conspiracy theories and fans crying foul; SB Nation (admittedly not the most reputable of sports media publications) did a feature this morning entitled "An NBA Draft Lottery conspiracy theory for every team" rather than focusing its efforts on any legitimate analysis. Whether or not you think the Lottery is rigged, it's likely that you have some complaint about the mechanics of the event.
Some people argue that the weighting is too heavily skewed towards the worst teams, giving teams incentive to tank at the end of the regular season to try and improve their odds of getting the top overall pick. An equal number of people, however, argue the exact opposite, claiming that the worst teams don't win the lottery often enough to help them become competitive more quickly. Even aside from debates about the lottery weighting, many people argue for a different system altogether. Some want a tournament for non-playoff teams (or some subset thereof), with the winner taking the top overall selection. Others want the NBA to adopt the NFL model of giving the worst team (by record) the top pick, tanking be damned. Advocates of the current system are few and far between, though the critics are far from agreeing on a next best alternative.
One criticism I do agree with is that the lottery drawing shouldn't be held behind closed doors. While I fully believe the system to be legitimate, doing the drawing before the announcement and not in plain sight leads to much of the conspiracy theory development. While this might be what the NBA is in fact going for - people are talking about the NBA Draft Lottery after all, aren't they? - doing the actually drawing of the ping pong balls (or equivalent) in public could simultaneously add legitimacy to the system and make the event more exciting. Don't people love to watch the local lottery ball drawings during the six o'clock news on their local broadcast affiliate? Couldn't the NBA make the Lottery some awesome Deal Or No Deal-style drawing that would be super compelling for the live audience? I would be 10x more likely to watch this than the current system, which at best features an awkward moment from the team representative and at worst is just plain boring.
Truth be told, I will tune into the NBA Draft Lottery tonight regardless, even though this year's potential rookie field lacks major star power. I think, all things considered, the current system does a solid job of finding a middle ground between promoting competitive balance and discouraging late-season tanking. While we'll always have the conspiracy theorists ready to pounce, I don't have as many issues with the current system as many others do. If the Sacramento Kings (currently with the 6th-best odds) somehow land the top pick tonight, however, I might have to rethink my viewpoint.
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